Google CEO: AI Progress Is Slowing—‘The Easy Wins Are Gone’

Google CEO Sundar Pichai has shared that generative AI is unlikely to make major changes to our lives by 2025, at least not beyond the impact it has already had.

When OpenAI introduced ChatGPT two years ago, generative AI quickly captured global attention. Now that several major tech companies, including Google, have developed competing models, Pichai predicts it will take time for another breakthrough to spark rapid growth in the field. Speaking at the New York Times’ DealBook Summit last week, Pichai noted, “I think the progress is going to get harder. I notice that the low-hanging fruit has vanished when I look at [2025]. The slope of the hill is steeper. As we move on to the next phase, you will undoubtedly need to make more significant progress.”

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Pichai acknowledged that current AI models like ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Meta’s Llama will continue to improve gradually, particularly in areas like reasoning and task completion. These improvements could eventually make AI more profitable for businesses, though significant returns have yet to materialize, despite investments in AI expected to surpass $1 trillion in the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs.

However, Pichai doesn’t foresee a major shift in how AI will affect society in the next year.

Microsoft’s Satya Nadella shares Pichai’s viewpoint, comparing AI’s progress to the Industrial Revolution, noting that after decades of slow growth, it eventually gained rapid momentum. “It’s never going to be linear,” he said at the Fast Company Innovation Festival 2024 in October.

On the other hand, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman disagreed publicly, posting on social media, “there is no wall,” in response to reports claiming that ChatGPT-4 offered only incremental improvements over previous models.

Despite these differences, Pichai believes that even small improvements will continue to make AI more accessible and valuable for a broader range of people. AI-related jobs, like AI trainers and prompt engineers, are already well-compensated, with average salaries exceeding $64,000 and $110,000, respectively, according to ZipRecruiter.

Looking ahead, Pichai envisions a future where programming becomes accessible to millions more people. “I think 10 years from now, [computer programming] will be accessible to millions more people,” he stated.